Mayo GAA Blog

It’s not just the financial markets that have had a mental week: my own work one has been loopier than normal and I’m truly glad that Friday evening has finally come around once more. So, U8 hurling commitments in the morning notwithstanding, I think a few slurps of craft beer will be on the agenda a bit later on tonight.

I’ve enjoyed the debate that’s been rumbling on here over the last few days and I really should have brought your attention before now to this piece by Ed McGreal in the Mayo News about Aidan O’Shea and this troublesome, deep-seated injury of his. The details of what’s exactly up with the Big Lad are all a bit medical school – what with talk of the osteitis pubis, the rectus sheath and so forth – but the good news is that he appears to be on the mend and should be okay for the summer.

The extent to which this issue has been a real pain in the pubic area for Aido is evidenced by the revelation that he’s been carrying the injury since the Connacht semi-final against Galway almost a year ago. In that report linked above, it’s stated that Aidan may have to undergo surgery before the year is out to sort the issue definitively but it seems that for this year’s campaign he’s going to manage it as best he can with rehab and so forth. Which does kinda beg the question about what happens if that doesn’t work but I guess that’s where the lad with the scalpel comes into the equation.

In that same Mayo News piece, it’s reported that Danny Kirby’s luck with injuries hasn’t changed either, as he now has a hamstring pull to recover from. On the credit side, Tom Cunniffe made his first appearance of the year for Castlebar Mitchels in a recent league game.

We may have a full five weeks to wait until our first outing in this year’s championship but, shite weather or no shite weather, the summer’s action gets underway properly this coming weekend. And with matches down for decision in all four provinces on Sunday, the GAA appears at last to have awoken to the fact that it needs to announce the championship’s arrival on the scene with a bit more fanfare than has occurred in recent years.

From our perspective, the clash between Roscommon and Galway at Hyde Park on Sunday (throw-in 4pm, live on RTÉ 2) is clearly the one of greatest interest. Sure, the days of shit-or-bust provincial games are long gone but that doesn’t mean that it’s a clash that either county will want to lose, given that the reward for doing so is an entry ticket into Round 1 of the qualifiers. Ewan McKenna, previewing the game in The Score, reckons that Hyde Park is where we could see the first shock result of the summer and I think that’s an assessment I’d be inclined to agree with.

Prior to that clash between the Sheepstealers and the Herrin Chokers, we’re aiming for provincial glory (after a fashion) in the day’s curtain-raiser, which is the Connacht Junior final where we face off against the Tribesmen (throw-in 2pm). Like the great 1950 senior team, this particular Mayo side were given a bye straight into the provincial final, when both Leitrim and Roscommon failed to go to post. All they have to do now to keep the comparison going is to go on and claim the county’s sixth All-Ireland title at this level and our first since 1997. No pressure then, lads. By the way, full details on the Mayo junior team and subs for Sunday’s decider are available here.

Finally, if you want to take part in this year’s championship prediction mini-league, via facetheball.com, you’ll need to get your skates on as closing time for the first week’s predictions is 3.30pm this coming Sunday. There’s a bumper field of 46 signed up for this year’s competition, one that includes all three previous championship mini-league winners, so you won’t be able to see yourself for all the elbows that’ll be swinging once the action gets going on Sunday. If you still fancy joining the fun and games, details on how to do so are here.

Right – time for that beer, I reckon.

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I see that the story about Ronan McGarrity’s possible imminent return to the senior panel – which was first broken yesterday in the Connacht Telegraph – has now made it into this morning’s Indo.

From what I know, there’s no definite confirmation about this development as yet, in the same way that there’s been no public announcement to date about the panel for this year’s championship.

If Ronan is back to full fitness then he’s obviously a welcome addition to the squad for the summer. Midfield has been a real problem area for us so far this year and while this can largely be attributed to injuries and suspensions (both, in Aidan O’Shea’s case) this isn’t the whole story.

Since the beginning of the league we’ve started six different players at centrefield – Seamus O’Shea, Pat Harte, Barry Moran, Aidan O’Shea, Danny Geraghty and Jason Gibbons – and, using this sextet, we’ve tried out six different midfield pairings. First it was Seamus O’Shea and Pat Harte (against Laois), then Barry Moran and Aidan O’Shea (the abandoned Dublin match, the Armagh game and the Cork one), then it was Seamus and big Barry  (Donegal and Cork), followed by Aidan and Danny Geraghty (Dublin), Aidan and Jason Gibbons (Kerry) and finally Barry and Jason (league semi-final and final).

That’s a huge amount of chopping and changing over the course of just nine games, at the end of which we’re still none the wiser as to which pairing works best at midfield. Aidan’s a definite starter, but only if he’s fully fit (which is far from a certainty at this stage), while Jason Gibbons is probably in pole position at the minute for the second slot. Seamus is still recovering from injury as well but should be okay for the summer and while Barry has remained mercifully free of injury so far this year, it’s still far from clear where on the field (if at all) it’s best to deploy him. Pat is clearly a better option in the forwards, while Danny looks equally at home in the half-backs.

A fully fit Ronan McGarrity would certainly spice up the selection decisions at midfield. While his 2011 was largely blighted by injury, it should be recalled that Ronan started the league last year in flying form for us and if he was back in that kind of form for the summer, he’d definitely be worth his place in this year’s championship panel.

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In the second part of his championship preview, JPM is back in the guest slot to assess Kerry’s chances for the forthcoming summer campaign.

If you were to compile a list every year of the top three teams likely to win the All-Ireland then realistically Kerry would nearly always be in it. Their current squad almost all possess Celtic Crosses at Senior Level and they have experience, flair, leadership, and the will to win. Bottom line – Kerry has talent in abundance.

They rely heavily on outmaneuvering teams especially around the middle third. They defend in depth and counter attack on opportunity. And they always go for the kill when the opportunity arises. Possession of the ball is crucial to Kerry and if they can win the middle third they have the platform with Galvin and co to deliver the killer balls into the Gooch to let him slice and dice at will.

But unfortunately Kerry football is in a little conundrum. Two questions spring to mind. Why are they losing key matches? And why are they losing them when they are in total control? And while the answer to the first is rather obvious in that the other team outscores them, the answer to the second is a puzzle for those in the know in the Kingdom.

After the debacle of last year’s All-Ireland defeat Kerry folk left the stadium wondering what happened. Mutterings were heard and fingers were pointed. Also there’s not much room to hide in Kerry. Talk there is not that cheap, not in a county with 36 All-Irelands. In accordance, so it seemed, over winter these players chewed over it and came to a conclusion that they were going to rectify it in 2012, starting with the League.

And they began with venom. First back to Croke Park and against the Dubs, where they put them firmly back in their box with a comprehensive six-point win. Subsequent victories emerged and Kerry eased comfortably into the semis with two games left in the League season. However this all went haywire when they arrived back in Croker and once more the same major malfunction re-occurred – this time against us.

Twice they contrived to let the match slip whilst having it within their grasp. Old failings that arose in the All Ireland final seemed to re-emerge. So the question re-arises, is there something mentally wrong with this team? Jack O’Connor tried to pass it off as just one of those days and in truth he may be quite correct. Nothing did seem to go right for Kerry that day, especially when you consider Donaghy’s suicide pass and Colm Boyle’s wonder goal. But there remains a sneaky suspicion that when push comes to shove, this Kerry team (even with all their All-Ireland glory), are liable to misfire when serious pressure is applied.

Could it be that age is finally catching up with these guys? Jack O’Connor has introduced youth to the side with the likes of Barry John Keane, Shane Enright and Peter Crowley.  However when it really matters you know in your head that Tomás Ó Sé will always get the nod before Daniel Bohane. Likewise, Brosnan, Marc Ó Sé, O’Mahony, Galvin – they will realistically all be in the mix. All are now in their thirties. Can they keep pulling the oars on the Kerry liner steering her towards Sam or have the years of toil finally taken their toll?

Another iceberg to consider for this Kerry team is that they meet Cork (presumably) in a Munster semi-final to be played in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. The likelihood of losing this and then going into the hat with a possible shootout against a top team will not unduly bother the Kingdom. But it may have consequences for them in their overall season.

The championship pace now is frightening, and beating the likes of Cork and Dublin will severely test the mettle and stamina of any team. But doing it whilst possibly having had to travel the back roads and overcome three other pitfalls along the way makes it very difficult indeed. Furthermore as it’s an open draw any of these could be on foreign ground. So Jack O’Connor and the rest of his boys still do have plenty to chew on before this season heats up.

Overall there is still a question mark surrounding Kerry this year. Their exit in the League may have aggravated this but generally Kerry teams don’t look back. It’s always about moving forward. And it’s far better to blunder in April rather than August. The only problem is that Kerry might not survive until August. Kerry’s All-Ireland Final may very well come two months earlier, when they face Cork by the banks of the Lee.

Next: Cork.

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I happened to bump into PJ Monaghan down at our local club on Saturday morning – he coming off U9 duties, me heading towards our U8 match – and then later on over the weekend he emailed me to let me know of the passing of Mary McGinty, wife of Christy McGinty. Christy was originally from Achill but has for many years been a member of Tallaght’s Thomas Davis GAA club. As PJ pointed out to me, Christy is a man who would be well known to the many Mayo lads who have played their club football in Dublin down the years. Christy’s brother, Packie McGinty, is currently President of Mayo GAA.

Mary, who herself hailed from Glenties in Donegal, died on Saturday and details of her funeral are here. May she rest in peace.

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I’m a bit slow out of the blocks today, with a mild hangover and other stuff (real life and so forth) to be getting on with. As can sometimes happens of a Sunday.

Thanks to Grainne’s comment a bit earlier on and the links provided by Albany, the girls’ thumping victory over Galway in yesterday’s Division 2 league final in Parnell Park has already got an airing here. It was another great win by the girls, yet another national title to add to an already long list, which shows that their hunger for success remains as strong as it ever has been.

The final may have been on just up the road from us here in the capital but Saturday is always a mad day in this house, with matches and training and all manner of ferrying and carrying and the like, so I was never going to get to it. I know that, as coverage goes, this site has served the girls fairly poorly down the years but I’ve never pretended that this is a full-time activity (even though it can often appear like it) and some things will always end up getting less focus than they perhaps deserve. The girls definitely fall into this category but that’s just the way it is, I’m afraid.

The hurlers, too, don’t get much of a mention here and, following their Christy Ring exit yesterday at the hands of London over in Ruislip, I don’t expect that’s going to change much either over the coming months. They ran Down close the week before in the opening round and came up short against London by the same two-point margin yesterday so that’s their 2012 campaign over and done with.

Hurling is a game I admire greatly but don’t profess to have any great insights into and so there’s little I can add to the bare facts about how the county’s Christy Ring campaign went this year. Are we competitive at this grade? Two narrow defeats would suggest we probably are but a few years back we were close enough to winning the Christy Ring outright, which certainly isn’t the level we’re at now. I’m not sure where that observation leads us but it probably needs someone with greater knowledge of hurling within the county to develop the point further than that.

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Last year he provided a number of previews over the course of the championship season and so I’m delighted to welcome JPM back into the guest slot to provide his thoughts on this year’s summer campaign. In this first of a series of pieces on the leading contenders for Sam, he looks at the prospects for defending champions Dublin.   

‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’. So goes the quote. And Dublin are the reigning All-Ireland champions. But when watching current Dublin inter-county football it’s difficult to see this reference being applicable.

Early League success was severely tempered by the trip to Mayo and then a subsequent failure in Cork ensured non-qualification for the League semi-finals. No doubt this seriously disappointed the heavy hitters in Croke Park, considering the paltry 11,000 attendees for that double-header. Undoubtedly a Kerry/Dublin rematch was what the coffer boys wanted. But of the four teams that finished above Dublin in the League, all four also beat them. So it really wasn’t by fluke that they ended up in fifth place.

On top of this are the more serious questions hanging over the temperament of some of this current Dublin side. It wasn’t just the defeat in Castlebar that was significant. The lack of discipline and self-control of key men led to several yellow cards and subsequent dismissals.

Are these guys just quite happy to swan around as All-Ireland champions? Is there a belief in their heads that the rest of the country is only good for licking the mud from their boots?

If the answers to these questions are in the affirmative, then Dublin could be in for an almighty shock, as unfortunately for them the stats don’t read well. Only one team in the past 20-odd years has succeeded in retaining back-to-back All-Irelands: Kerry in ‘06 and ’07. You could argue that stats are meant to be broken but Dublins’ patchy performances in this year’s League points to a dip in form. Maybe it’s only second season blues, but it certainly has given Pat Gilroy plenty to mull over.

However there are still positives. First of all will be the return of the Brogan brothers. They will bring experience and familiarity back to the team. Plus an added cutting edge up front.

Another is the fact that Gilroy has now plenty of sticks to beat this team up with. He knows he has the backing of the fans and the board, therefore he can do whatever he likes with this group of players. No-one is above him in the pecking order. The players know (or should know) that they will have to perform or they will be pulled aside, big reputations or not.

Also the players themselves know the odds are against them regarding back-to-back All-Irelands. Bryan Cullen spoke on radio about the job facing this team and he mentioned this fact stating that the team is well aware of this uncomfortable statistic.

But perhaps the biggest positive for the Dubs is being back in Croke Park itself for the foreseeable future. Croke Park feels like a fortress to Dublin, and in all honesty it does prove a most difficult nut to crack for nearly all opponents. Overall their championship record there is impressive and the added benefit of playing home League games there gives them the experience and big time feel required for the forthcoming championship encounters. With a full house it is definitely worth a couple of points on the board to them.

So really it’s no more trips to the countryside for these guys, getting waylaid in the South, ambushed out West, or shot down up North. Dublin will be hoping that the high stands of the Croker Coliseum, aligned with their baying mob on the Hill, will bring back the strength to this team. And in doing so prevent any more damage being inflicted from outside forces on their quest for more glory.

Next up Kerry.

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As well as being in the midst of the Challenge Match Season, we’re also mired in Official Launch land at the minute so, in this spirit, I guess it’s as well to join in the frivolity. And so, folks, it’s time to unveil plans for the fourth Mayo GAA Blog Championship Prediction Mini-League, hosted as ever by those kind people at facetheball.com.

This is now a tournament with some pedigree, with Mortified having taken the spoils the first year it was run back in 2009 and then I followed up with what I can modestly recall was a runaway victory in 2010. My hopes of claiming back-to-back titles were well and truly smashed last summer, though, as Mayo Mick instead became the third holder of this coveted title. Swinford’s finest – who is also a regular photographic contributor on the site – is already in the field, ready to defend his crown this time round. In fact, eight hopefuls have already gone to post but there’s plenty of room at the starting gate for the rest of you too.

If you want to take part in this year’s competition, it’s all very straightforward. Here’s what you have to do: log in (or register, if you haven’t yet done so) at facetheball.com, join the 2012 All-Ireland Senior Football Championship competition, click to enter this and then click on the “Join Mini League” option on the panel on the left-hand side of the screen. This will prompt you to enter the mini-league’s ID code which is xBGPk05bma7N. Click “Join” and that’s you sorted.

The first round of matches are on the weekend after next – unusually, the championship gets going dish ear with action in all four provinces – so you’ll have loads of time to mull over these opening games before the off.

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The GAA is facing more sporting competition than normal this summer and perhaps it’s with this in mind that the coming weekend has been earmarked for county teams to open their doors to the general populace, enabling supporters to get up close and personal with the lads on the field. The Mayo version of this nationwide jamboree is set for this coming Friday (11th May) at McHale Park with a 6.30pm throw-in.

All manner of fun and games have been planned for the evening. As well as being able to rub shoulders with the players and backroom team, there’ll be face painting, jersey signing, music, the opportunity to have your GAA skills assessed by the county coaches and the chance to have a right good nose around the McHale Park facilities. Elverys will also be there if you want to stock up on any replica gear while you’re in the mood.

The evening gets underway with press and media stuff at 6.30pm while the ordinary folk will get in on the action at 7.15pm. Then there’s a squad training session at 8pm which everyone is welcome to watch from the comfort of the stand. Full details on the evening are available here.

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As the recently concluded NFL campaign slips away into the past, I’m delighted to welcome John Cuffe back to the guest slot to cast his eye over our record in finals as well as what league form can mean for the championship.

Malcolm Gladwell wrote about Outliers. The dictionary tells us “outliers are numerically distant from the rest of the data”.

Gladwell selected some great examples ranging from people who had all the luck to those blighted by ill-fate. By using data, birthdates and figures Gladwell showed that outliers defy common logic.

There is no team comparable to Mayo in Ireland. We have a handful of winners comprising Kerry, Cork, Dublin and Tyrone since 2004. We have the vast majority who range from mediocre to those that give a challenge for a year or two. And we have Mayo. Statistically Mayo defy logic.

Taking our study base from 2004 to the present we see Kerry, Cork, Tyrone and Dublin are the most successful. But that tells only part of the story. When we widen out to estimate the full health of a county, that six-year framework highlights another tale.

Mayo have competed in two Senior All-Ireland finals, two at U21, three at Minor, one senior club one and three in the league. That’s 11 ‘A’ finals across the board without looking at the ladies. The win/loss ratio from that lot is 2:11, an abysmal record and one worthy of proper study, not a hazardous and unscientific shot in the dark by myself.

I used the word “abysmal”. That shows the targets and heights we set ourselves. No other county, successful or unsuccessful, comes within an ace of us across the grades. That indicates we do an awful lot of correct things: we breed top-class footballers, we get to finals and then we lose. Subtract one from the other and we will get the answer.

Now for a very interesting statistic. Mayo’s greatest successes come when they win three Connacht titles in a four-year period. The 1948-‘51 team won four in a row Connacht titles, contested three All-Ireland finals and won two of them with a league title thrown in for good measure.

We have to come to 1996-‘99 for the next three out of four. We contested two finals in that era. This year is the next time we can achieve that feat: 2009-‘12. If we win Connacht, statistically we should make an All-Ireland final. Now comes the grisly bit.

We have played in eight league finals since 1970 by my reckoning. We have never won a Connacht title after getting to a league final. In fact we seem to be at our worst after those finals. The 1970 final saw us go down to Roscommon in Tuam, ‘71 to Galway, ‘72, ‘78 and 2001 all to Roscommon, 2007 saw us plastered by Galway and backdoored by Derry. The defeat to Cork in 2010 brought misery with losses to Sligo and Longford.

So what this year? The stats say we are likely to fail. But isn’t it time to challenge those stats. A refrain in many of the excellent comments on mine hosts Willie Joe’s site point out its only April and “only” the league. They are once again wrong, statistically speaking.

League form is almost parallel to championship form. Once more we move from 2004 to the present. Kerry won the 2004, 2006 and 2009 All-Irelands after winning the league. Cork won the 2010 All-Ireland and league finals. Dublin lost the 2011 league final to Cork but continued their run for Sam. Kerry reached the 2008 final of the league and also got to that year’s All-Ireland final.

Mayo, Donegal, Derry and Wexford are the odd teams out there. They reached finals in the league in that era but stalled in that year’s championship.

One other glaring statistic: Kerry head the list for All-Ireland winners. They also head the list for national league winners. The correlation is clear. Success in one leads to success in the other.

Here is where we are back in outlier land again. Mayo are second to Kerry in league titles but lag them in the championship. We have a disconnect there. I don’t have the answer but we all have theories. Why do Mayo do so well in getting to finals and then not perform? A bad team will get to one final but bad teams don’t make multiple finals.

Ger Loughnane – when he took over Clare – described them like Mayo. He saw Clare as a team afraid to win. Loughnane went about tearing out the weak heart and spine that held Clare back. He made enemies and it was Clare against the rest, a siege mentality almost. Remember Marty Morrissey outside the hospital waiting for the death of some players’ grandmother; remember the battles, the suspensions, and the rows. But Clare took their place amid the winner’s enclosure and Biddy Early was pensioned off.

Len Gaynor, manager supreme, player of the ard scoth was Loughnanes predecessor if I am not mistaken. Ger built on Len’s solid work but added Tír grá , misneach and hate to the mix. Ollie Baker, Sean McMahon, Davie Fitz, the Lohans, the Sparrow and Colm Lynch emerged and tore the script to shreds.

What drove Loughnane more than anything was the hate he possessed for the condescending way his county was viewed. They too were league specialists. They too flattered to be greater only to fall flat on their faces. Loughnane was almost mad but crazily sane. He stored and harvested the little things. A smile from the genius that was Nicky English was turned into a sneer towards the people of Clare.

A comment at a long forgotten Munster council meeting was resurrected to rally the troops. A comment by Len Gaynor to his Clare team about how Tipp viewed them was used to devastating effect. What am I trying to say here? Maybe we need statistics to show us the fault lines but maybe we need a mad man to chart our way forward as well.

This is where we are at. Four of the 2007 league final team took up the same positions in the forward line five years later against Cork in another league final. The fifth came on as a centrefield sub. I believe we have achieved an awful lot but I also feel deeply that we have done a lot of running on the spot. If that quartet/sextet were not able to beat Donegal in 2007 did we really believe that they would have been able to beat Cork a few Sundays ago?

The above, by the way, is not an implied criticism of players or manager. What it indicates is that’s what’s available within the county and they have done all right, thank you. Perhaps we are outliers, destined to straddle that place that exists just behind the winner’s enclosure but also well away from the also rans? I don’t know.

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There was much more than football involved in today’s proceedings at the Robert McCallion Memorial Pitch in Swinford – the centrepiece of which was the dedication of the Swinford GAA ground to the memory of the late Garda Robert McCallion, performed by local legend Dr Padraig Carney – but the football part of it was still interesting enough and it provided a useful workout for a number of the panel as they put last weekend’s league final behind them and start to think ahead to the upcoming summer campaign.

Challenge matches are always odd enough animals. Shorn of the normal competitive dynamic it’s impossible to read much into either individual performances or, indeed, the final result. So the fact that Donegal came away from the East Mayo venue this afternoon with a one-point win – on a scoreline of 1-14 to 3-7, in a match where they trailed by a goal at the break – probably isn’t all that relevant in the greater scheme of things.

The fact that we were able to give game time to twenty players today is probably of more importance. With one of these being a certain D Kirby of Castlebar Mitchels – incredibly making his first senior appearance since blasting four goals past GMIT in the FBD back in January – I’d say there’s a good chance that the 1,000 or so punters who turned up today (that’s PJ’s estimate, by the way – he was in Swinford today but I wasn’t) went away thinking about how the players who had turned out did today rather than brooding on another defeat.

The team we fielded today was, predictably enough, one that bore very little resemblance to the one that had started at Croke Park last Sunday, with only three of that league final starting team – Colm Boyle, Barry Moran and Cillian O’Connor – also lining out this afternoon. Fittingly enough, today’s side was skippered by local clubman Aidan Campbell and it was equally appropriate that the players from both sides got a formal handshake from the Flying Doctor before the ball was thrown in.

We were well on top in that first half at we went in 2-4 to 0-7 in front. Peadar Gardiner, who lined out in his customary wing-back position, was our unlikely scoring hero in that opening half, bagging 1-1. The other goal, set up by Aidan Campbell, was scored by Cillian O’Connor (who also got a point from a free), with Enda Varley notching two points, one from a free.

We may have held sway in the opening half but the visitors were well on top for most of the second period. According to PJ, they had the bulk of possession and won everything that was breaking around the middle of the park. Our third goal – blasted home emphatically from the penalty spot by Pat Harte, following a foul on sub Danny Kirby – kept us in it but McFadden had equal success with a penalty for them and it took two late points, by Alan Freeman and Enda Varley (another free), to cut Donegal’s final winning margin to just the single point.

As I said, I wasn’t there so I can’t provide any worthwhile insights into who performed well for us today. PJ – who was there – liked the cut of Michael Forde, who played at wing-forward in the first half but was replaced for the second period by Fergal Durkan, and he also thought that Barry Moran had a reasonably productive afternoon. He, like the rest of us I’m sure, was glad to see Danny Kirby back in action and he was impressed with how the young Mitchels man performed in the second half. I doubt, somehow, that this is the last we’ll see of Danny this summer and if I were him I’d be having a good, hard luck at that new square-ball rule and thinking about how best a man of his disposition might best be able to exploit it.

Mayo: Robert Hennelly; Michael Walsh, Shane McHale, Eoghan Reilly; Peadar Gardiner (1-1), Colm Boyle, Richie Feeney; Pat Harte (1-0, penalty), Barry Moran; Aidan Campbell, Cillian O’Connor (1-1, point a free), Michael Forde; Enda Varley (0-3, two frees), Alan Freeman (0-1), Jason Doherty. Subs: Danny Kirby (0-1) for Doherty, Ruaidhri O’Connor for Boyle, Fergal Durkan for Michael Forde, Conor O’Shea for Campbell, Kevin Keane for Gardiner, Jason Doherty for Cillian O’Connor.

Photo credit from match: @MayoGAA, which was also an invaluable source of information on today’s match.

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